It’s hard to imagine, that the Colts are actually losing on purpose. I have seen them play a few times on T.V and they are trying (trying being the all important word here) to win...or at least to some cynics; that they are at looking like they are trying to win, or perhaps they are the very least trying just so much to not get thrashed.
Last season, with a fully fit Peyton Manning, the Colts were a decent team boasting a 10-6 record. They won their AFC South title. All be it that has never been too hard for them in recent years, as their challengers; the Jags, the Titans and the Texans have not put much of a stop to them. In fact since 2003 the Colts have won their conference every year apart from in 2008 when they came second. Last season they lost to the Jags in the playoffs who then beat the Patriots.
So in essence with Peyton Manning behind centre, this is a good football team. But how on earth have they slipped to being winless, by losing just one player. American Football more than any other sports is a team based game. Yes, the QB is very important, and especially when that player is perhaps the greatest to have lived, but surely a good team has to have other good players.
Furthermore a weakened good team should still beat if not come close to beating a generic weak team. The Bears have lost Jay Cutler and have lost three in a row, but they nearly (and should) have beat the Broncos in week 14. However, look at other teams who have injured QBs are hanging in there. 3rd string Chiefs QB,, Yates is playing well, plus what about all those rookie QBs who had no training camp because of the lockout and are storming the league, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton spring to mind.
Tough Schedule?
Because of the “Socialist Capitalism” that makes up the back bone of the NFL, two of the 16 games an NFL team plays each is based on the previous year’s standings. The Colts won their division so they play the winners of two other divisions. This is the League’s way of aiming to keep things competitive. Other leagues do a similar thing:
Look at British soccer. A team win the Championship and they get promoted to the Premiership the next season, playing with the big boys. Where they inevitably get smacked about for 40 weeks and get relegated again, but they certainly profit money wise. Or how about how Premiership teams who would rather not go after domestic cups, but rather focus on finishing fourth in the League, so they could play the following season in the lucrative Champions League, even though they are likely to get smacked about as well, but again, it raises their profile, brings them in more money and inevitably the better team you are, the better teams you play against, as it should be.
So this year for those two “Parity” games, the Colts played Chiefs away. Who are actually like the Colts, not a very good team at all this year, and the Colts probably feel that this season this was the one game that could have won.
For their second “Parity” game, they faced the mighty Patriots, who are still mighty this year. Yet despite having lost the first 11 games of the season, the Colts played for pride two weeks ago and nearly beat the Patriots who let their foot off the gas somewhat. The Colts lost by just seven points at Foxboro. With Manning playing I’m not sure the game would have been much closer.
This Colts team also had a tough schedule generally. They played the full force of the AFC North facing two of the best in the Division: The Steelers and the Ravens. Throw in the ever improving, yet slightly inconsistent Bengals, makes the only winnable game being the Browns, which the Colts lost by eight in the second game of the season, while they were adjusting to life without Manning.
Their other interdivision games were against the mighty NFC South, who harbour such offensive powerful guns as the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints. The lads from Tampa Bay, who were great at the start of the season but have dwindled. The Colts lost to them by seven in week four. Had this game be next week, the Colts would have won. Thus leaving the Panthers, whose offense has been a delight under rookie QB, Cam Newton, who has clearly regalvanised this team, despite plenty of injuries themselves. The Colts lost this one by eight.
Which brings us onto their very own conference, the AFC South, which is now finally catching up on the Colts. The Texans were predicted to finish 1st here, before Manning had his surgery, as they are finally a good football team. This season sees their first ever trip to the playoffs, despite crippling injuries to some star players: Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Mario Williams and two QBs; Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart. The Titans have improved dramatically under Matt Hasselback this year and look solid. Then finally there is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sure they are not the strongest, but on their day they can play well and they beat the Colts by 14 points.
Now I do believe that the Colts are not as bad as their record suggests. They are not as bad as the 0-16 Lions from 2008. Whom I saw play a couple of times live and they were just awful. This has been a tough schedule and the Colts are so used to having Manning back there that it seems everyone else is lost without him. But that is no excuse for going winless. Sure, lose a few games against better teams, but to lose them all would be under selling them.
I believe that all NFL players are professional and want to win, at least for their own pride. Despite the millions those players get, they still want to play well, for their own careers. Would other NFL teams come knocking when they have a 0-16 on their resume? Yes the colts management has been poor in replacing Manning and short sighted for thinking that he would never get injured. Similarly they should have a good enough run game and defense to at least beat the Browns, Jags, Panthers, Chiefs and possibly the Bucs.
Blame the management not the players
I’m sure these Colts are not “sucking for Luck” on purpose, as they have come pretty close in some games. Sure their points difference is a hugely embarrassing -198. The Rams are next with -173, but with two wins, while the Bucs are -138 with four wins. Yes there has been bad luck, and a tough schedule, but maybe there is more to it than that.
The Colts management could have engineered this under the noses of their own players. They must have known that their team was not that great this year with Manning. Perhaps an 8-8 team, that might have scrapped a wildcard spot and then a mediocre pick next season.
So with the management allowing Manning to go for surgery they knew that their poor team would now be worse, and this way they have an excuse for when they go winless: “We lost the best player in football,” blah blah blah. They never get a high pick, because of the “Socialist Capitalist” model, whereby the worst team gets the first pick at the following draft. So maybe they thought they would be better in the long run, by being as bad as possible now they to get the best pick; most likely star QB Andrew Luck.
Some argue would the Colts really draft a QB with an uninjured Peyton Manning? Well Manning is getting old, and yes he does cost them a lot of money in the cap, but if Luck is half as good as they say, learning from the game’s best will only make him a stronger QB quicker. This way the Colts have tied down a franchise QB for the next ten to twelve years. Or they could pick him, then trade him instantly for probably two or three very good players.
Yes, “sucking for luck” has worked out for them, if that is what they have intended to do. However I’m not sure it’s 100% the Colts, sucking on purpose either. I do believe the players are trying to win. I believe the management are so-so about the wins and losses. Going 0-16 would be embarrassing, but going 1-16 would be a lot better and they would still get first pick. I don’t think the management of the Colts are trying to not win, I just think they are not bothered about not winning, and here is why.
By knowing your season is well and truly over by say week 7, ( though some say it was over when Manning went for surgery) the management can now hold back other star players and rest them for next season. I haven’t done the research, but I’m sure star players are getting rested. This now gives the Colts plenty of “exhibition” games for their younger rookies to get plenty of action, and they can see which players they want to keep for next year. So inevitabley they are “sucking for luck” but really if their season is over, why not try out the young players.
Of course some teams might not find this fair. Teams in the NFC South and AFC North have clearly benefited from the Colts lacklustre season. Teams like the Saints, the Falcons, the Ravens and Steelers were all worried about this matchup in the off-season, but now it has become a tick in the win box almost before kick off.
Psychological hump
Because there are so few games in the NFL regular season for a team, (16) once you win a few on the turn, or on the flip win a few on the turn, you are either team that “sucks” or a team that is playoff bound. So in theory your first few games will likely have a big impression on the rest of your season. Win a few and everyone thinks you’re great, look at the Bucs this year. Loose a few and suddenly you are the laughing stock of the league.
Once you are the laughing stock other teams treat you as such. Instead of playing things softly, thinking they can walk all over you and getting embarrassed, they decided to play even harder, and in the Colt’s case this season this is for a number of reasons:
1: The Colts have held bragging rights for many years, so all teams want to beat them, with or without Manning.
2: As soon as they lost Manning, teams knew this would be a golden chance to take this opportunity to destroy a team that consistently beats them
3:No team wants to lose to the team that is winless. Once the Colts lost a few games, other teams stepped up their game knowing they didn’t want to be the first team to lose to the worst team.
The Colts didn’t have a terrible schedule at the start of the season, as they faced, the Texans, the Browns, the Steelers , the Bucs and the Chiefs. With Manning they would have only worried about the Steelers game and perhaps the Texans game. Yet by losing all five to poor teams like the Chiefs and Browns other teams took motivation from that. Do you think Carolina were going to let themselves get beat by the Colts after the Browns beat them? No way.
As far as I know no other team has gone from being so good to so bad so quickly, so I’m sure cynics out there will believe they are losing on purpose. If this were the case and it is proven they should have some kind of fine or be penalised as it brings the game into disrepute.
Last season Manchester Utd were nearly docked points for fielding a weaker team, a game which they lost. They were clear of the leader board but they wanted to save their star players for an up-coming Champions League game. The rule of “fielding your strongest team” still stands, but because Manchester United run a “squad” rotation policy, they get off with no penalty. Partly because they are in fact Manchester United and they can get away with things like that.
Yet is that any different when teams who are playoff bound, like the Packers this year, start to rest star players in the last few weeks for their playoff run? That too could impact which other teams get to the playoffs. My Bears face the Packers on Christmas day. The Packers may rest Aaron Rodgers and lose the game and the Bears could win and make the playoffs. Yet no one in the NFL community seems to think that fielding a weaker team for a playoff bound team, or in the Colt’s case to “suck for luck” or try out rookies is somewhat un-sportsman like.
Personally, as mentioned, I think it is a number of reasons that the Colts haven’t won yet. I say yet because I think for their own pride they will get a W, and I think it will be against the Jags on the last day of the season.
A big reason and possibly the main reason why the Colts have not won, is simply because they face no penalty or consequence other than a league wide mocking by losing. Sure they lose some money in sponsorship, merchandise and T.V revenue and ticket sales. Oh no, hang on, they don’t. The NFL’s “Socialist” model means all 32 NFL team get the same slice of all the pie.
So what do they lose? Without the concept of relegation, or some other costly consequence, the Colts can afford to have a terrible year and it not “be bad for business”, in fact it is rather good for business, because come April they would have brought in a star player.
Why now? Rookie salary cap
So why have the Colts decided to pull the plug, experiment with rookies and allow their star player to have an operation so late in the off-season. Well to be honest, I’m not sure if they had much control over Manning’s operation, but the timing could not be much better.
Over the last few years the first ten or so draft picks, the rookies of which have demanded huge salaries. Every year the first pick makes more money than the previous first rounder. First picks, Matt Stafford of the Lions and Sam Bradford of the Rams had multi million pound contracts that eclipsed most of their team mates, and this was before they even played a snap.
In the past, grabbing a first pick has been a double edged sword. The player will only come to your club if he gets more money that the first pick of the season before. So already you are spanking a massive amount of your salary cap on a rookie, who could turn out to be terrible. JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf spring to mind.
Some bad teams like the Lions and Rams have had no choice. Whoever they took with the first pick would have improved their poor teams. They were both desperate for a good QB, and look how both players have helped their teams. The risk has paid off, but both teams were useless so they had no choice.
The fact that prior to this season, the first round pick was just so expensive that teams nearing the bottom of the rankings, might start to work hard enough to avoid that player hitting them for a huge amount of cap money.
The rookie salary cap is a good thing. 21 year old flashy college players are not getting the handouts they once were and they have to earn their money. Sure this year’s first pick, Cam Newton is a millionaire and will probably never go hungry, but his guaranteed money in his contract was far less than Matt Stafford’s or Sam Bradford’s. Unlucky for Newton, because he is better than both of them and is getting less money. In fact Stafford was probably not even the best player in the draft that year, but because the lions needed a QB and he was the best QB in the draft he got picked at number one and has the massive contract.
The rookie salary cap means that picking a first pick, doesn’t hit the team’s cap nearly as much which means far less risk. If the player is a bust it’s not nearly as big a deal as it was last season and before. Which now more than ever means there is really no downside to coming last in the rankings and picking first. This way you get a quality player and you don’t need to let go of three or four other quality players to make room in your cap. There is basically no risk, and I don’t think it is any surprise that the Colts seem so relaxed about losing so many games.
Yes I probably should mention that in this case Andrew Luck is apparently an NFL ready QB and far and away the best player in the up and coming draft, despite him not winning the Heisman trophy last week. Perhaps his abilities make it more plausible that the Colts are losing or purpose, or maybe they would still take whoever the first pick is. Either way I know that something has to change, because this is not what the NFL or any professional sports is about. Teams shouldn't be allowed (if this is the case) to lose on purpose!
My next column to follow will be about whether or not “sucking for luck” should be allowed and how these Colts are changing the spectrum of the NFL forever...
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